CASUS Institute Seminar, Prof. Tyll Krüger, Faculty of Electronics, Department of Control Systems and Mechatronics, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Wrocław (Poland)

Predicting the future of the COVID-19 pandemic is a challenging task and can not be done without mathematical models describing the progression of the epidemic. Despite large uncertainties about epidemiological relevant medical and social key parameters, mathematical models can provide deep insights into the dependency of the epidemic dynamics on those parameters.

Epidemiological models can furthermore be used to develop and improve rational strategies for controlling the COVID-19 epidemics. The talk’s focus is on fundamental mathematical features of individual based epidemic models. It will highlight the close relation to problems in percolation and random graph theory. The special role of households will be emphasised and some outcomes of the MOCOS microsimulation model for the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland and Germany will be presented.