The Earth System Science research team at CASUS tackles problems at the interface spatial ecology, hydrology, and anthropogenic change to understand the dynamics of biodiversity in the Anthropocene. It combines sophisticated models of spatial ecological processes with multispecies datasets from around the world by leveraging the latest techniques in data science, machine learning, and high-performance computing.
Prof. Dr Justin Calabrese
CASUS Research Team Leader
Contact
+49 3581 375 23 71
Center for Advanced Systems Understanding
Conrad-Schiedt-Straße 20
D-02826 Görlitz
Spatial ecological processes strongly influence the species’ distributions and the biodiversity of ecological communities. These processes are mediated by the geometry of habitats and the movement of animals, both of which can be heavily impacted by anthropogenically driven global change. Teasing apart the intricate, multiscale interactions among these key components requires adopting a systems science perspective. Additionally, the large volumes of complex and often noisy data required to understand spatial ecological processes and their interactions necessitate the latest data science and high-performance computing (HPC) tools. To tackle these challenges, the Earth System Science research team brings together expertise in Spatial Ecology, Animal Movement, Hydrology, Data Science, Geostatistics, Computer Science, Epidemiology.
Animal Movement Ecology. The movement of animals is a fundamental ecological process with effects that range from driving local population dynamics to shaping biodiversity patterns at continental scales. Moving animals can transport energy, materials, and nutrients across ecosystem boundaries, disperse plant seeds to new environments, and spread diseases over great distances and across species. Animal movement can thus have major effects on the structure, function, and services provided by ecosystems, and is a key, but underappreciated, component of the Earth system. We develop cutting-edge statistical methods and software to facilitate rigorous inferences from growing stockpiles of animal tracking data. In particular, we focus on techniques for quantifying encounters between moving individuals, con- and heterospecific animals, areas or objects of interest (e.g., particular habitat types), and human infrastructure (e.g., roads and vehicles).
Biodiversity in River Networks. Conserving biodiversity amid accelerating global change is a grand challenge in ecology. While biodiversity loss affects many ecosystems, rivers— which harbor a disproportionately large fraction of global biodiversity—are among the most imperiled ecosystems on Earth. Riverine fish biodiversity is influenced by a tapestry of factors including geometric constraints, environmental, anthropogenic effects, and the biological properties of constituent species. We are teasing apart this complexity by combining hydrologically-driven, dendritic neutral biodiversity models with global datasets on river geometry, hydrology, and species occurrence. When combined with forecasted hydrology under climate change scenarios, our models allow large-scale projections of biodiversity loss.
Epidemiology and Optimal Control. Traditional compartment-type epidemiology models are essential tools for understanding and mitigating disease outbreaks. The recent COVID-19 pandemic showcased both the strengths and limitations of this venerable modeling framework. To be better prepared for the next pandemic, we are extending compartment modeling approaches along two axes to facilitate deeper understanding of the controllability of infectious diseases. First, … comparative framework… This generalized “age of infection” model allows us to perform meaningful, side-by-side comparisons across infectious diseases to isolate the factors that govern controllability. Second, we extend traditional epidemiological models to account for behavioral and economic considerations. These coupled models, when combined with multifaceted datasets across nations, then facilitate more balanced insights into the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies.
E. H. Colombo, L. Defaveri, C. Anteneodo - Phys. Rev. E 111, 014402 – Published 2 January, 2025
Interactions between organisms are mediated by an intricate network of physico-chemical substances and other organisms. Understanding the dynamics of mediators and how they shape the population spatial distribution is key to predict ecological outcomes and how they would be transformed by changes in environmental constraints…
Volker Grimm, Uta Berger, Justin M. Calabrese, Ainara Cortés-Avizanda, Jordi Ferrer, Mathias Franz, Jürgen Groeneveld, Florian Hartig, Oliver Jakoby, Roger Jovani, Stephanie Kramer-Schadt,Tamara Münkemüller, Cyril Piou, L.S. Premo, Sandro Pütz, Thomas Quintaine, Christine Rademacher, Nadja Rüger, Amelie Schmolke, Jan C. Thiele, Julia Touza, Steven F. Railsback - Ecological Modelling, Volume 501 (2025) 110967
Replicating existing models and their key results not only adds credibility to the original work, it also allows modellers to start model development from an existing approach rather than from scratch. New theory can then be developed by changing the assumptions or scenarios tested, or by carrying out more in-depth analysis of the model. However, model replication can be challenging if the original model description is incomplete or ambiguous..
Jack P.W. Hollins, Christen H. Fleming, Justin M. Calabrese, Les N. Harris, Jean Sebastien Moore, Brendan K. Malley, Michael J. Noonan, William F. Fagan, Jesse M. Alston, Nigel E. Hussey - bioRxiv (Posted November 30, 2024)
An animal’s home range plays a fundamental role in determining its resource use and overlap with conspecifics, competitors and predators, and is therefore a common focus of movement ecology studies. Autocorrelated kernel density estimation addresses many of the shortcomings of traditional home range estimators when animal tracking data is autocorrelated, but other challenges in home range estimation remain…
Benjamin Garcia de Figueiredo, Justin M Calabrese, William F Fagan, Ricardo Martinez-Garcia - arXiv preprint arXiv:2409.11433
Many natural phenomena are quantified by counts of observable events, from the annihilation of quasiparticles in a lattice to predator-prey encounters on a landscape to spikes in a neural network. These events are triggered at random intervals when an underlying dynamical system occupies a set of reactive states in its phase space. We derive a general expression for the distribution of times between events in such counting processes assuming the underlying triggering dynamics is a stochastic process that converges to a stationary distribution…
Vivian Dornelas, Pablo de Castro, Justin M Calabrese, William F Fagan, Ricardo Martinez-Garcia - The Royal Society (Published:11 September 2024)
We created a computational workflow to analyze the potential energy surface (PES) of materials using machine-learned interatomic potentials in conjunction with the minima hopping algorithm. We demonstrate this method by producing a versatile machine-learned interatomic potential for iron hydride via a neural network using an iterative training process to explore its energy landscape under different pressures…
Justin M Calabrese, Lennart Schüler, Xiaoming Fu, Erik Gawel, Heinrich Zozmann, Jan Bumberger, Martin Quaas, Gerome Wolf, Sabine Attinger - l Journal of the Royal Society Interface (Published:11 September 2024)
Comparing COVID-19 response strategies across nations is a key step in preparing for future pandemics. Conventional comparisons, which rank individual non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) effects, are limited by: (i) a focus on epidemiological outcomes; (ii) NPIs typically being applied as packages of interventions; and (iii) different political, economic and social conditions among nations. Here, we develop a coupled epidemiological–behavioural–macroeconomic model that can transfer NPI effects from a reference nation to a focal nation. This approach quantifies epidemiological, behavioural and economic outcomes while accounting for both packaged NPIs and differing conditions among nations…
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