The Earth System Science research team at CASUS tackles problems at the interface spatial ecology, hydrology, and anthropogenic change to understand the dynamics of biodiversity in the Anthropocene. It combines sophisticated models of spatial ecological processes with multispecies datasets from around the world by leveraging the latest techniques in data science, machine learning, and high-performance computing.
Prof. Dr Justin Calabrese
CASUS Research Team Leader
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+49 3581 375 23 71
Center for Advanced Systems Understanding
Conrad-Schiedt-Straße 20
D-02826 Görlitz
Spatial ecological processes strongly influence the species’ distributions and the biodiversity of ecological communities. These processes are mediated by the geometry of habitats and the movement of animals, both of which can be heavily impacted by anthropogenically driven global change. Teasing apart the intricate, multiscale interactions among these key components requires adopting a systems science perspective. Additionally, the large volumes of complex and often noisy data required to understand spatial ecological processes and their interactions necessitate the latest data science and high-performance computing (HPC) tools. To tackle these challenges, the Earth System Science research team brings together expertise in Spatial Ecology, Animal Movement, Hydrology, Data Science, Geostatistics, Computer Science, Epidemiology.
Animal Movement Ecology. The movement of animals is a fundamental ecological process with effects that range from driving local population dynamics to shaping biodiversity patterns at continental scales. Moving animals can transport energy, materials, and nutrients across ecosystem boundaries, disperse plant seeds to new environments, and spread diseases over great distances and across species. Animal movement can thus have major effects on the structure, function, and services provided by ecosystems, and is a key, but underappreciated, component of the Earth system. We develop cutting-edge statistical methods and software to facilitate rigorous inferences from growing stockpiles of animal tracking data. In particular, we focus on techniques for quantifying encounters between moving individuals, con- and heterospecific animals, areas or objects of interest (e.g., particular habitat types), and human infrastructure (e.g., roads and vehicles).
Biodiversity in River Networks. Conserving biodiversity amid accelerating global change is a grand challenge in ecology. While biodiversity loss affects many ecosystems, rivers— which harbor a disproportionately large fraction of global biodiversity—are among the most imperiled ecosystems on Earth. Riverine fish biodiversity is influenced by a tapestry of factors including geometric constraints, environmental, anthropogenic effects, and the biological properties of constituent species. We are teasing apart this complexity by combining hydrologically-driven, dendritic neutral biodiversity models with global datasets on river geometry, hydrology, and species occurrence. When combined with forecasted hydrology under climate change scenarios, our models allow large-scale projections of biodiversity loss.
Epidemiology and Optimal Control. Traditional compartment-type epidemiology models are essential tools for understanding and mitigating disease outbreaks. The recent COVID-19 pandemic showcased both the strengths and limitations of this venerable modeling framework. To be better prepared for the next pandemic, we are extending compartment modeling approaches along two axes to facilitate deeper understanding of the controllability of infectious diseases. First, … comparative framework… This generalized “age of infection” model allows us to perform meaningful, side-by-side comparisons across infectious diseases to isolate the factors that govern controllability. Second, we extend traditional epidemiological models to account for behavioral and economic considerations. These coupled models, when combined with multifaceted datasets across nations, then facilitate more balanced insights into the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies.
Peatland restoration can halt biodiversity loss and organic soil degradation and mitigate climate change. Monitoring of restoration impacts requires novel approaches that can be scaled to large site networks. On a smaller scale, the restoration practitioners would likewise benefit from spatially and temporally comprehensive and objective monitoring data.
Long-term care facilities have been widely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Retirement homes are particularly vulnerable due to the higher mortality risk of infected elderly individuals. Once an outbreak is happening, suppressing the spread of the virus in retirement homes is challenging because the residents are in contact with each other and isolation measures cannot be widely enforced.
An animal’s home-range plays a fundamental role in determining its resource use and overlap with conspecifics, competitors and predators, and is therefore a common focus of movement ecology studies. Autocorrelated kernel density estimation addresses many of the shortcomings of traditional home-range estimators when animal tracking data are autocorrelated, but other challenges in home-range estimation remain.
Fagan, W.F., ..., and J.M. Calabrese - PNAS , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, PUBLIsHED: 29 September 2025
Animals’ space-use patterns are central to eco-evolutionary theories of territoriality and foraging and to resource management practices, all of which can entail assumptions of spatial homogeneity. We found evidence for species- and clade-level variation in mammalian carnivores’ reliance on re-used travel routeways within their home ranges, with canids having, on average, both a greater density of travel routeways and a greater probability of routeway usage than felids.
Jesse L. Brunner, Justin M. Calabrese - Conservation Biology, published: 27 August 2025
Reports in the literature of mass mortality events (MMEs) involving diverse animal taxa are increasing. Yet, many likely go unobserved due to imperfect detection and infrequent sampling. MMEs involving small, cryptic species, for instance, can be difficult to detect even during the event, and degradation and scavenging of carcasses can make the window for detection very short. Such detection biases make it difficult to understand trends in MMEs across time, regions, or taxa.
The COVID-19 pandemic affected Europe unevenly, with surges in infections and deaths fluctuating across different regions and time periods. Hyper-localised hotspots and staggered timelines created intense, asynchronous waves of infections and deaths that distort country-level and cumulative data, obscuring the pandemic’s spatiotemporal dynamics through aggregation. Despite extensive research comparing states and analysing subnational variance…
Clara Grilo, Tomé Neves, Jennifer Bates, Aliza le Roux, Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno, Mattia Quaranta, Inês Silva, Kylie Soanes, Yun Wang & Data Collection Consortium - Scientific Data, published 31 march 2025
We undertook a compilation of roadkill records, encompassing both published and unpublished data gathered from road surveys or opportunistic sources. GLOBAL ROADKILL DATA includes 208,570 roadkill records of terrestrial vertebrates from 54 countries across six continents, encompassing data collected between 1971 and 2024.
Jeffery Demers, William F. Fagan, Sriya Potluri, Justin M. Calabrese – Mathematical Biosciences, Published: 28 March 2025
Rapid identification and isolation of infected individuals with diagnostic testing plays a critical role in combating invasions of novel human pathogens. Unfortunately, unprepared health agencies may struggle to meet the massive testing capacity demands imposed by an outbreaking novel pathogen, potentially resulting in a failure of epidemic containment as occurred with COVID-19.
Matt Crane, Inês Silva, Matthew J. Grainger, George A. Gale – Conservation Biology, First published: 03 March 2025
Wind farms can pose significant risks to bat populations through collisions with turbines, habitat loss, and effects on behavior. With its rich bat diversity and expanding wind power industry, Southeast Asia lacks sufficient data to assess the risks posed to bat species from wind turbine collisions…
Edward Richard Ivimey-Cook , Alfredo Sánchez-Tójar , Ilias Berberi, Antica Culina, Dominique G. Roche, Rafaela A. Almeida, Bawan Amin, Kevin R Bairos-Novak, Heikel Balti, Michael Bertram , Louis Bliard , Ilha Byrne, Ying-Chi Chan, William R Cioffi, Quentin Corbel, Alexander D. Elsy, Katie R. N. Florko and other authors– ecoevorxiv, Published: 2025-01-20
High quality research data and analytical code are essential for ensuring the credibility of scientific results, are key research outputs, and are crucial elements to facilitate reproducibility. However, in ecology and evolution (E&E) in particular, it is currently unknown how many journals have policies on data- and code-sharing for peer review purposes, or upon manuscript acceptance. Furthermore, the clarity of such policies may impact authors’ compliance…
Daniel W. A. Noble, Zoe A. Xirocostas, Nicholas C. Wu, April Robin Martinig, Rafaela A. Almeida, Kevin R. Bairos-Novak, Heikel Balti, Michael G. Bertram, Louis Bliard, Jack A. Brand, Ilha Byrne, Ying-Chi Chan, Dena Jane Clink and other authors– Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Volume 292, Issue 2039, Jan 2025
Publishing preprints is quickly becoming commonplace in ecology and evolutionary biology. Preprints can facilitate the rapid sharing of scientific knowledge establishing precedence and enabling feedback from the research community before peer review. Yet, significant barriers to preprint use exist…
E. H. Colombo, A. B. García-Andrade, Ismail, J. M. Calabrese – arXiv, Physics and Society, 28 Jan 2025
Rivers are well-known to exhibit fractal-like properties that lead to existence of scaling laws that link network geometry and size. However, these geometric relations might not necessarily capture the spatial features that most directly influence ecological processes such as the generation and maintenance of biodiversity. Connectivity metrics, on the other hand, have been shown both theoretically and empirically to influence relevant large-scale ecological outcomes…
E. H. Colombo, L. Defaveri, C. Anteneodo - Phys. Rev. E 111, 014402 – Published 2 January, 2025
Interactions between organisms are mediated by an intricate network of physico-chemical substances and other organisms. Understanding the dynamics of mediators and how they shape the population spatial distribution is key to predict ecological outcomes and how they would be transformed by changes in environmental constraints…
Volker Grimm, Uta Berger, Justin M. Calabrese, Ainara Cortés-Avizanda, Jordi Ferrer, Mathias Franz, Jürgen Groeneveld, Florian Hartig, Oliver Jakoby, Roger Jovani, Stephanie Kramer-Schadt,Tamara Münkemüller, Cyril Piou, L.S. Premo, Sandro Pütz, Thomas Quintaine, Christine Rademacher, Nadja Rüger, Amelie Schmolke, Jan C. Thiele, Julia Touza, Steven F. Railsback - Ecological Modelling, Volume 501 (2025) 110967
Replicating existing models and their key results not only adds credibility to the original work, it also allows modellers to start model development from an existing approach rather than from scratch. New theory can then be developed by changing the assumptions or scenarios tested, or by carrying out more in-depth analysis of the model. However, model replication can be challenging if the original model description is incomplete or ambiguous..
Jack P.W. Hollins, Christen H. Fleming, Justin M. Calabrese, Les N. Harris, Jean Sebastien Moore, Brendan K. Malley, Michael J. Noonan, William F. Fagan, Jesse M. Alston, Nigel E. Hussey - bioRxiv (Posted November 30, 2024)
An animal’s home range plays a fundamental role in determining its resource use and overlap with conspecifics, competitors and predators, and is therefore a common focus of movement ecology studies. Autocorrelated kernel density estimation addresses many of the shortcomings of traditional home range estimators when animal tracking data is autocorrelated, but other challenges in home range estimation remain…
Benjamin Garcia de Figueiredo, Justin M Calabrese, William F Fagan, Ricardo Martinez-Garcia - arXiv preprint arXiv:2409.11433
Many natural phenomena are quantified by counts of observable events, from the annihilation of quasiparticles in a lattice to predator-prey encounters on a landscape to spikes in a neural network. These events are triggered at random intervals when an underlying dynamical system occupies a set of reactive states in its phase space. We derive a general expression for the distribution of times between events in such counting processes assuming the underlying triggering dynamics is a stochastic process that converges to a stationary distribution…
Vivian Dornelas, Pablo de Castro, Justin M Calabrese, William F Fagan, Ricardo Martinez-Garcia - The Royal Society (Published:11 September 2024)
We created a computational workflow to analyze the potential energy surface (PES) of materials using machine-learned interatomic potentials in conjunction with the minima hopping algorithm. We demonstrate this method by producing a versatile machine-learned interatomic potential for iron hydride via a neural network using an iterative training process to explore its energy landscape under different pressures…
Justin M Calabrese, Lennart Schüler, Xiaoming Fu, Erik Gawel, Heinrich Zozmann, Jan Bumberger, Martin Quaas, Gerome Wolf, Sabine Attinger - l Journal of the Royal Society Interface (Published:11 September 2024)
Comparing COVID-19 response strategies across nations is a key step in preparing for future pandemics. Conventional comparisons, which rank individual non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) effects, are limited by: (i) a focus on epidemiological outcomes; (ii) NPIs typically being applied as packages of interventions; and (iii) different political, economic and social conditions among nations. Here, we develop a coupled epidemiological–behavioural–macroeconomic model that can transfer NPI effects from a reference nation to a focal nation. This approach quantifies epidemiological, behavioural and economic outcomes while accounting for both packaged NPIs and differing conditions among nations…
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